000
FXUS61 KGYX 190708
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
308 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY...WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RUNNING
ALONG THE FRONT. THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN NO GREAT HURRY TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...AND RIPPLES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...KEEPING
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ANOTHER CLUSTER OF TSRA LOOKS LIKE IT/LL TRACK ACROSS THE NRN
ZONES DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND SUNRISE HOURS...WHILE ANOTHER SMALL
LINE OF STORMS EXITS OFF THE NH COAST ATTM. ONE SFC BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SIT JUST N OF THE CWA TODAY...AS OTHER SMALLER SFC
BOUNDARIES...GENERATED FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTIONS COULD BE THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. UNLIKE YESTERDAY...THERE ARE NOS SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ALOFT MOVING THRU...ALTHOUGH ONE DOES MOVE ACROSS FAR NRN ME THIS
AFT. THEREFORE...THINK ANY CONVECTION WILL BE GENERATED BY
INSTABILITY AND SFC CONVERGENCE AROUND ANY BOUNDARIES. GENERALLY
WENT WITH SLT CHC POPS SRN COASTAL SECTIONS AND TAPERED THEM UP TO
HIGH CHC IN NRN ME...GIVEN THE WAVE UP THERE. WIND FIELD TODAY
SHOWS SOME DEEP SPEED SHEAR...WITH SOME WEAK LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...SO A FEW STORMS COULD START TO BOW OR ROTATE A BIT...BUT
DEFINITELY NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY. ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER
WIND SHIFT TO A DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
DOWNSLOPE WOULD HELP INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THOSE
AREAS.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM TO HOT DAY...EVEN NEAR THE COAST...GIVEN
THE WESTERLY FLOW AND DOWNSLOPE. USED MAV MAXES TRIMMED BACK BY A
COUPLE DEGREES GIVEN POSSIBLE BKN MID-HI CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...DO NOT EXPECT THINGS TO BE TOO MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN LAST EVENING...ALTHOUGH LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD
WIND DOWN A BIT QUICKER AND SHOW LESS COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN SRN
ZONES.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD BEGINNING WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PREVALENT
WITH MUGGY OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WITH SOME DEGREE OF FOG. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK...THOUGH TROPICAL AIR
MASS WILL KEEP DEW POINTS NEAR 70 INTO THE EARLY WORKWEEK...AND
THEY'LL SLOWLY MODERATE BACK DOWN TO NEAR 60 BY LATE WEEK BEFORE
ONCE AGAIN INCREASING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...FOG WILL LKLY COME AND GO THROUGH THE SUNRISE HOURS
AT MOST PLACES...WITH KPWM/KPSM/KAUG SHOWING LESS FOG...AND
KLEB/KCON WITH A LITTLE MORE. ONCE THE FOG CLEARS BY 12Z...VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH SAT EVE. WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH MORE
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE...BUT THINK IT WILL
BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN FRI.

LONG TERM...DAYTIME VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LOWER
TO MVFR/IFR IN SOME DEGREE OF FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STILL SEEING SOME 3-4 FT SWELL TONIGHT...BUT WITH
INCREASED SW WINDS TODAY...MAY SEE THAT FINALLY TRANSITION TO WIND
WAVES OF THE SAME HEIGHT. STILL...SEAS/WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA 
AVIATION...CEMPA 
MARINE...CEMPA